In the financial markets, the definition of volatility is assumed to be standard deviation. However, in practice, people seem to either forget the definition or completely substitute it with the mean absolute deviation. For example...
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life in Mediocristan is quite enjoyable. It reminds me of Lawrence Durrell's Alexandria. The ocean is nearby, and the climate is pleasant. Never too cold, never too hot.
On principle, therefore, a small short position is in order. Small because we cannot time markets, and small because it's an expression of a philosophical view, not an attempt to make fuck you money with one trade.
against my (acquired) skepticism of anything published in the last 50 years (exceptions: Kazuo Ishiguro's novels, The Selfish Gene), I picked up Nassim N. Taleb's Antifragile.
nowadays our hikes are frequent, easy, and short. We drive long distances to reach the trailhead, and typically do not make it to the main attraction (the waterfall, the pool, the giant sequoia), but we do have lots of fun.
morning hike in the desert
more data--such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street--can make you miss the big truck.
so be it resolved, that I will not, in the entirety of the year 2025, buy shit unless such shit has one of the following three characteristics