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placing high-confidence bets in mediocristan and winning

life in Mediocristan is quite enjoyable. It reminds me of Lawrence Durrell's Alexandria. The ocean is nearby, and the climate is pleasant. Never too cold, never too hot.

shorting stocks based on fragility

shorting stocks based on fragility

On principle, therefore, a small short position is in order. Small because we cannot time markets, and small because it's an expression of a philosophical view, not an attempt to make fuck you money with one trade.

dying a good death and reading antifragile

dying a good death and reading antifragile

against my (acquired) skepticism of anything published in the last 50 years (exceptions: Kazuo Ishiguro's novels, The Selfish Gene), I picked up Nassim N. Taleb's Antifragile.

basic hiking gear (2025)

basic hiking gear (2025)

nowadays our hikes are frequent, easy, and short. We drive long distances to reach the trailhead, and typically do not make it to the main attraction (the waterfall, the pool, the giant sequoia), but we do have lots of fun.

tahquitz canyon - evacuating from the L.A. fires

morning hike in the desert

when you cross the street, you remove data

more data--such as paying attention to the eye colors of the people around when crossing the street--can make you miss the big truck.

only one new year resolution --> don't buy shit

so be it resolved, that I will not, in the entirety of year 2025, buy shit unless such shit has one of the following three characteristics.

from high school nerd to boss

when nerds become restless at work about getting promoted to higher levels of management, they double down on their nerd skills to increase their output.

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