on sampling and its discontents
terrain, models, and inference... the more uncertain the terrain, the less we can rely on sampling
2 min read
writings
risk, uncertainty, and error
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when you get too close, you only hear the noise
In the presence of randomness, high-frequency observation obscures signal. Why Djokovic's 55% point wins reveal less than his 88% match record.
1 min read
virtue over fortune in investing and other pastimes
since you can't help yourself, then let's use the word "virtue" for the disciplined application of your method, and the word "fortune" for the outcome of your "investments."
2 min read