risk, uncertainty, and error
In the presence of randomness, high-frequency observation obscures signal. Why Djokovic's 55% point wins reveal less than his 88% match record.
that fact does not make moral reasoning impossible. It changes its character. It means we should be cautious about moral frameworks that depend on precise enumeration of outcomes, and more respectful of constraints that have survived because they may protect society from certain failure modes.
if you don’t inherit friction from the world and are traveling through Extremistan, it may be wise to design your own friction: embrace the beauty of logistics, accept multiple stops along the way, say “no” when in doubt, study the classics.
leverage exists, but is always paired with constraints. Physical limits (think size or speed), cultural friction, or some other factor that prevents scaling out of control and keep the thing going (i.e., alive, not extinct, not permanently ruined)... but in our wonderful world of finance...
the asymmetry of ruin: scalability and lack of friction can turn ordinary mistakes into terminal events
since you can't help yourself, then let's use the word "virtue" for the disciplined application of your method, and the word "fortune" for the outcome of your "investments."
