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risk

risk

fragility, linear and non-linear phenomena, blind spots

leverage is TNT

leverage exists, but is always paired with constraints. Physical limits (think size or speed), cultural friction, or some other factor that prevents scaling out of control and keep the thing going (i.e., alive, not extinct, not permanently ruined)... but in our wonderful world of finance...

wealth is abstract, ruin is concrete

the asymmetry of ruin: scalability and lack of friction can turn ordinary mistakes into terminal events

shorting stocks based on fragility

shorting stocks based on fragility

On principle, therefore, a small short position is in order. Small because we cannot time markets, and small because it's an expression of a philosophical view, not an attempt to make fuck you money with one trade.

virtue over fortune in investing and other pastimes

since you can't help yourself, then let's use the word "virtue" for the disciplined application of your method, and the word "fortune" for the outcome of your "investments."

what we talk about when we talk about correlation

in day-to-day meetings and coffee chats, no big deal, but when it comes to making investing or hedging decisions, beware.

the misery of sovereign power

the misery of sovereign power

a sword is perpetually suspended over our head. We dread our very guards, we distrust our companions.

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I publish slowly and irregularly