a handful of basic ideas for The Idler
These ideas belong to the world of tinkering rather than to the realm of grand philosophical principles.
1 min read
risk, uncertainty, and error
stray notes from markets, literature, history, and everyday life
Latest posts
songbook 1 (acoustic)
A list of songs to be practiced and played. In the best case, an important cultural transmission takes place as my kids absorb and develop their taste. In the average case, I just have fun.
1 min read
financial crisis headlines (Oct 7, 2008)
just some notes I took while things were unfolding in September and October 2008
1 min read
on sampling and its discontents
terrain, models, and inference... the more uncertain the terrain, the less we can rely on sampling
2 min read
number 1: ensemble vs. time
a first attempt to disentangle the (on the surface) simple question "what is the expected return?"
3 min read
what is it like in June 2026?
Macro temperature check. June 12, 2026.
2 min read
the idler capital
the most apt name for an investment endeavor.
1 min read
later is now (rediscovering Elliott Smith)
i make my wife and kids listen to Between The Bars
2 min read
wild randomness
an easy to visualize example of wild randomness
1 min read
samuel johnson on parental responsibility
on our moral obligation to ensure our children's well-being.
when you get too close, you only hear the noise
In the presence of randomness, high-frequency observation obscures signal. Why Djokovic's 55% point wins reveal less than his 88% match record.
1 min read
black blood that kept drippin'
I am no stranger to you. I was born in Troy, and the blood you see is oozing from no tree...
1 min read